A Fiscal Scorecard: Presidential Prospective Nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton

A Fiscal Scorecard: Presidential Prospective Nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton


The Committee for a Responsible Budget recently catalogued the campaign promises and their costs over the next decade from Prospective Presidential Nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. http://crfb.org/papers/promises-and-price-tags-fiscal-guide-2016-election

The chart below summarizes their most significant findings – important reading before the standard obfuscations of political conventions, debates and campaigns.



Health Policies

+ $0.15 trillion

+ $0.05 trillion

Tax policies

- $1.25 trillion

+ $9.25 trillion

Spending policies

+ $1.4 trillion

+ $0.5 trillion

Immigration policies

- $0.10 trillion

+ $0.5 trillion

Net interest

+ $0.05 trillion

+ $1.7 trillion

Total budget impact

+ $0.25 trillion

+ $11.5 trillion


In other words the Trump proposals add $11.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade while Clinton adds $250 billion. Under Trump, the national debt would rise from 86% of GDP to 127% of GDP. Under the Clinton proposals, the national debt would rise from 86% of GDP to 87% of GDP.

Clinton would spend $350 billion more on college education, $300 billion on infrastructure, $300 billion on paid family leave, $200 billion on early childhood education and $150 billion more on health programs. She would raise taxes on high-income individuals by $1.25 trillion over the next decade. Trump would spend $9.25 trillion on cutting taxes, primarily for high-income individuals and $500 billion on improving care at the VA (Veterans Administration) by contracting with private hospitals and doctors. Trump’s tax cutting proposal would reduce federal tax revenues from 18.1% of GDP to 13.6% of GDP.

On health care, Clinton would save $200 billion by cutting reimbursements to drug companies and adopting the public option, spend $100 billion by repealing the Cadillac benefits tax, and expand ACA coverage at a cost of $300 billion. Her improvements to the ACA are as follows: 100% federal matching for three years for new Medicaid expansion states (e.g. Texas, Florida, etc.), 8.5% cap on ACA premiums as a percent of family or individual income, fix the family glitch, and a new refundable tax credit for family out of pocket and premium costs that exceed 5% of household income.

Trump would save $500 billion by block granting Medicaid, spend $500 billion by repealing the Affordable Care Act, and spend $100 billion by expanding tax deductibility of HSAs and increasing tax deductibility of individuals’ health insurance premiums.

Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin

Date: July 8, 2016





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