Summary of UCLA Anderson School Economic Forecast
LA Times (12/5/18)
UCLA’s Anderson Business School is forecasting economic growth over 3% this year, dropping to 2% in 2019 and falling to 1% in 2020. It sees the chief risks to the economy are: the trade wars and tariffs, the large corporate debts being incurred in mergers and acquisitions, and the drag of the large federal budget deficits generated by the federal tax cuts and spending.
California will fare better than the nation; however in California, unemployment will rise from 4.1% now to 4.5% in 2020. Payroll growth will fall from 2% this year to 0.9% in 2020. Housing starts will increase from 125,000 today to 140,000 in 2020. Personal income growth will fall from just under 4% to just under 3%.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin