Governor Newsom has recently proposed to further improve California’s individual market, building on the improvements pioneered in the Affordable Care Act and implemented by Covered California. He mentions three key issues: premium assistance extended to 600% of the federal poverty level (FPL), greater assistance with premium assistance and cost sharing for individuals with incomes less than 400% of FPL, and reinstating the individual mandate. He as yet has given no details.
Since the settlement of the LA Teacher’s Strike, I have been wondering “what did it all accomplish?”
We are going to hear non-stop about the wall and immigration until the 2020 election. President Trump believes this is what his core backers want, and it's a symbol for him and them.
Revenues for the state General Fund will be up by about $5 billion in the 2019-20 budget to $146 billion. The primary sources of the General Fund are: the personal income tax ($100 billion), the sales tax ($27 billion) and the corporations’ tax ($13 billion).
The Governor is proposing $158 billion, of which $40 billion is state General Fund for Health and Human Services programs. This includes Medi-Cal ($100 billion), public health ($3 billion), State Hospitals ($2 billion), Developmental Services ($7.8 billion), realignment funds from the state to counties ($11.5 billion), IHSS ($12.7 billion), SSI ($2.8 billion), CalWorks ($4 billion), and other ($14 billion).
The Governor’s budget proposes $36.4 billion for higher education. UC would receive $9.6 billion, an increase of 3%. CSU would receive $7.8 billion, an increase of 6%. Community Colleges would receive $16.2 billion, an increase of 2.6%. Student Aid would receive $2.7 billion, an increase of 12%.
Governor Newsom’s Proposed CA State Budget on K-12 Education
Funding for K-12 is proposed at $80.7 billion, an increase of $2.9 billion. This includes an increase of $2 billion to the Local Control Funding Formula and an increase of over $576 million for special education. In addition, there is an one time $3 billion proposed to reduce school’s pension costs and $125 million in new funds for increased slots for preschool for low income children – 180,000 slots.
The Governor is making interesting proposals to cover 6 months of paid leave after childbirth, expanded child care, develop universal pre-school available to all 4 year olds and assure full day kindergarten for all children.
CA is only producing 40% of the new housing units it needs, the result is that rents are soaring and poor, working class and middle class cannot afford the rents or homeownership, and homelessness is increasing throughout the state.
The British, Russian and American Empires have tried to govern, pacify, rule or dominate Afghanistan with not very much success. The Persians, Indians, Mongols, Greeks, Arabs and others experienced difficulties as well. Part is the geography of steep mountains, and part may be the warring tribal nature of the culture. Some of the current difficulties are the proximity of India, Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran – each with their own distinct and competing regional agendas and tribal loyalties.
I’m not sure what to make of it. We sell out the Kurds, Brits, French and Syrian rebels to Presidents Assad, Putin and Erdogan. The French and the British say they will stay the course, but President Trump declares “mission accomplished” and hightails out of there, and Vladimir Putin says “hooray, don’t worry my good buddy, we’ll have the situation under control”.
Stock markets are in serious turmoil. Real estate construction is slowing a bit; manufacturing could be somewhat better. Most economic indicators seem to be pretty decent – inflation is under control, unemployment is low, and economic growth has been ok for the past nine years. https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
The steep rolling hills and deep canyons are still burnt black from the fire, but green sprouts are starting up from the recent rains.
Judge Reed O’Connor of the Northern District of Texas has ruled that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.299449/gov.uscourts.txnd.299449.211.0.pdf He is best known previously for opinions holding President Obama’s efforts to allow DACA (Dreamers) children to remain in this country and work and pursue their studies were unconstitutional. He is a very conservative judge, and his opinion is likely to be reversed on appeal, but it has to be understood. If it is upheld in the Supreme Court, over 20 million Americans could lose coverage and over 100 million Americans with pre-existing conditions could have their coverage reduced or eliminated or their premiums increased; there are also adverse impacts in store for Medicare beneficiaries and privately insured employees who had their coverage improved under the ACA. In the meantime, the best advice is hold tight and keep enrolling people and implementing the ACA’s coverage expansions for Medi-Cal and Covered California.
We met about thirty five years ago in a small kayak store in Venice, CA. Together we slid through the water with pods of friendly dolphins and visited with sea lion harems, flocks of scoters, stately herons, little brown bat rays, brilliant red sea urchins, and lazy leopard sharks.
Governor Newsom has laid out an ambitious agenda: including more housing and more affordable housing, universal pre-school, universal health coverage, tax reform and more. All of these cost money, and there are very real budgetary limits. Many will require the cooperation of multiple interest groups frequently at war with each other and gubernatorial leadership will have to mesh these competing agendas. Ultimately many will need approval by the state’s voters.
UCLA’s Anderson Business School is forecasting economic growth over 3% this year, dropping to 2% in 2019 and falling to 1% in 2020. It sees the chief risks to the economy are: the trade wars and tariffs, the large corporate debts being incurred in mergers and acquisitions, and the drag of the large federal budget deficits generated by the federal tax cuts and spending.
The LAO notes that headed into the next fiscal year, California will have reserves of $14.5 billion and an additional $14.8 billion for the Legislature and new Governor to allocate in the next fiscal year. Looking out further, the LAO notes that if the economy enters a recession, California will have sufficient reserves to weather the recession, assuming 1) it’s a moderate recession and 2) the state does not spend its current surplus. If the economy continues to grow the state will have operating surpluses of $4.5 billion annually.
President Bush was a thoroughly decent man and a wonderful father, husband, grandfather and public servant. He embodied the role model that we expected from our Presidents. This has been lost and needs to be rediscovered in the next election.
This week, the Pew Research Center reported that the numbers of unauthorized immigrants in the US has continued its steady decline that has been underway since 2004.